Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 21.452574 23.311642 25.318867 27.657677 30.321392 33.276677 36.825729
2025-11-02 18.414957 20.922214 23.813824 27.435621 31.908975 37.333061 44.535362
2025-11-09 16.359255 19.242191 22.745653 27.403527 33.573079 41.680345 53.534952
2025-11-16 14.772035 17.860108 21.774616 27.244161 34.940117 45.815064 63.248520
2025-11-23 13.536206 16.740145 20.946710 27.079509 36.181653 49.930802 74.022744
2025-11-30 12.531539 15.794018 20.206818 26.881779 37.271437 53.963575 85.853743
2025-12-07 11.758095 15.070576 19.672183 26.871513 38.589524 58.577828 100.287666
2025-12-14 11.067760 14.391418 19.116154 26.730618 39.633071 62.901529 115.822466
2025-12-21 10.738453 14.188845 19.222339 27.614361 42.520876 71.280169 144.315425
2025-12-28 10.171562 13.590454 18.669296 27.344178 43.291859 75.663472 165.411433
2026-01-04 9.723048 13.132410 18.287594 27.306167 44.470494 81.197866 193.260141
2026-01-11 9.384235 12.813681 18.093249 27.559645 46.243404 88.565910 232.658414
2026-01-18 8.959379 12.344796 17.635422 27.321418 47.047451 94.049585 271.475900
2026-01-25 8.573291 11.913570 17.208118 27.096005 47.855360 99.880050 318.926676
2026-02-01 8.255039 11.570044 16.900564 27.060852 49.080307 107.335364 385.293173
2026-02-08 7.942274 11.216538 16.549358 26.902539 50.001947 114.314861 462.485901
2026-02-15 7.654254 10.886596 16.214627 26.739951 50.888866 121.601580 559.329370
2026-02-22 7.383597 10.570278 15.881549 26.545334 51.667763 128.929369 679.386665
2026-03-01 7.160985 10.321461 15.650513 26.535027 52.915690 138.558891 860.952473
2026-03-08 6.935396 10.056056 15.372015 26.396555 53.809599 147.388591 1084.823986
2026-03-15 6.864449 10.046917 15.556445 27.264236 57.615382 170.395346 1746.098761
2026-03-22 6.646244 9.775309 15.238523 26.998940 58.180409 179.678186 2286.435082
2026-03-29 6.470865 9.569547 15.031360 26.961605 59.418203 193.147191 3294.206061